Published brownfield registers (currently covering 95% of England) demonstrate that there are suitable brownfield sites available for over 1 million homes in England. If this figure is extrapolated to account for unpublished registers, there would be space for at least 1.1 million homes. More land can be identified. If more registers looked at small sites (sites that would deliver fewer than 10 homes), CPRE estimate space for an additional 220,000 homes could be identified. More homes could be delivered on sites if land is used more efficiently The average density of sites on the registers is 33 dwellings per hectare. If the sites delivered new homes at the average density of new development of 37 dwellings per hectare, estimates could increase by another 130,000 homes. More brownfield land is being identified as suitable for housing. Councils have identified suitable land for 23% more housing since they were required to submit information on previously developed land to the National Land Use Database from 2010 to 2012. Most of the identified capacity can be redeveloped now. Almost 620,000 (67%) of the homes can be delivered by 288 local authorities in the next five years according to the brownfield registers (which can be extrapolated to nearly 730,000 if all local authorities were included across England). This represents 60% of estimated housing need, or 3 years’ housing land supply. But many of these homes do not have any planning permission so those sites are not being used. More than 150,000 of these homes identified as deliverable over the next five years (extrapolated to 180,000 with all local authorities included) do not yet have planning permission: these should be taken forward as a priority. Across the registers as a whole, brownfield sites that could provide 43% of the homes identified do not have any form of planning permission, including 234,000 homes on suitable sites owned by public bodies, such as councils.
Over the past 10 years, national surveys have revealed a marked increase in the number of older private tenant households (aged 65 and over). In England, the English Housing Survey shows an increase from 254,000 in 2006-7 to 414,000 in 2016-17.16 Across the UK, a House of Commons Briefing (using the UK-wide Labour Force Survey) shows the number of older private tenant households nearly doubling between 2006 and 2016 (from 196,000 to 360,000).There is further evidence of increasing PRS demand from other surveys: Knight Frank’s 2017 Tenant Survey (of over 10,000 private tenants) found that 87% of “baby-boomers” (aged 65+) expected to be renting in three years time (a much higher proportion than younger age groups). A National Landlord Association poll of UK member landlords suggested a 13% increase in retired people renting privately in mainstream housing from 2012 to 2016 (around 220,000 extra tenancies), with higher proportions of retirees in some regions: 17% in the South East, 15% in the South West and North West; only 3% in London; Countrywide’s index of their private lettings across Great Britain also reported a growing proportion of retired private tenants, up from 5.2% in 2007 to 8% in 2017, and higher proportions of retired tenants in areas with lower rents (18% in Wales, 13% in the South West, but only 3.5% in London); nearly 20% were retired but under 65, and around half were single. Looking into the future, data from both the English Housing Survey and the UK Labour Force Survey shows that in 2016/17 there were over a million private tenants aged 45-64, and between 2006/7 and 2016/17, the numbers in both groups (45-54 and 55-64) more than doubled. The University of York Centre for Housing Policy estimated that up to a third of 60 year-olds will be renting by 2040, and many will never have been home-owners.
An estimated 500,000 older people are privately renting. This is 1 in 10 of all private rented households. The Local Government Association (LGA) forecasts that older households will make up around 60% of projected household growth between 2008 and 2033. In 2015, just 17.5% of housing stock in England and Wales was social housing. 27% of older people live in homes that don’t meet the ‘living home standard’. Rents across England grew by an average of 14.6% between 2011 and 2017 (and by 22% in London) while wages increased by 10% over the same period
At the age of 27, those born in the late 1980s had a homeownership rate of 25%, compared with 33% for those born five years earlier (in the early 1980s) and 43% for those born ten years earlier (in the late 1970s). In 1995–96, 65% of those aged 25–34 with incomes in the middle 20% for their age owned their own home. Twenty years later, that figure was just 27%. Mean house prices were 152% higher in 2015–16 than in 1995–96 after adjusting for inflation. By contrast, the real net family incomes of those aged 25–34 grew by only 22% over the same twenty years. As a result, the average (median) ratio between the average house price in the region where a young adult lives and their annual net family income doubled from 4 to 8, with all of the increase occurring by 2007–08. The likelihood of a young adult owning their own home given how their income compares with house prices in their region is little changed from twenty years ago. But in 2015–16 almost 90% of 25- to 34-year-olds faced average regional house prices of at least four times their income , compared with less than half twenty years earlier. At the same time, 38% faced a house-price-to-income ratio of over 10, compared with just 9% twenty years ago. In 2014–17, 30% of 25- to 34-year-olds whose parents were in a low occupational class (e.g. delivery drivers or sales assistants) owned their home, compared with 43% of those whose parents were in a high occupational class (e.g. lawyers, teachers or estate agents). However, after controlling for differences in observable characteristics of young adults such as their earnings and education, the homeownership gap between those from high and low socio-economic backgrounds is much smaller, at around 3 percentage points.
The world is ageing, particularly in advanced economies. Over the next 30 years, we will see an extra 15,000 people reaching retirement age in the Organisation of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) member countries every single day. By 2045 the proportion of the population aged over 65 will rise to 25%, from the current 16%. This equates to 146m more old people than there are today – totalling 1.4bn globally. At the same time, the younger population is steadily shrinking. In 2015, the young (those under 20 years old) counted for 24% of the population, a proportion which is expected to decrease to 21% by 2045. This demographic shift is set to have a profound impact on society and the social fabric of cities. By 2030 all major urban centres in the OECD will see a sharp increase in the number of elderly. These cities will need to adapt and develop a number of short and longer-term strategies to ensure they respond adequately to both the challenges and opportunities that an ageing population present. For the first time in history, the elderly will be the largest age group by 2045, with the greatest increase occurring in those aged over 75 years. There are two main reasons for this:
A decline in the number of births. Fertility rates have declined steadily through the post-war period, particularly in advanced economies. Almost all OECD countries now have fertility rates below the replacement rate of 2.1 children per female. People are living longer. In the OECD, life expectancy for most people alive today is already 90-100 years.
There are almost 160,000 households experiencing the worst forms of homelessness in Britain. If we carry on as we currently are, this is expected to almost double in the next 25 years:
100,500 new social homes each year are needed for the next 15 years to meet the needs of homeless people and people on low incomes – including those at risk of homelessness
PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP have estimated that the total costs of supporting homeless people in our five definitions of ending homelessness between 2018 and 2041 is £19.3bn…… and will deliver benefits of £53.9bn*
By 2025,8.2 million households will be headed by someone who is 65 or over – an increase of 23%. Homes headed by someone aged85 and over are the fastest growing household. More than 90% of people in later life live in mainstream housing. Current UK homes are largely in poor condition, and non-decent homes are disproportionately lived in by older people. Our current housing stock is not accessible or adaptable for people across the life course – only7% of homes meet basic accessibility features. Of all homes lived in by older people,20% failed the Decent Homes Standard in 2014, and poor housing for people over 55 costs the NHS£634 million every year. By people’s late 80s, more than one in three people have difficulty doing five or more daily activities without help (basic routine activities like eating, bathing and dressing). Installing minor home adaptations and making improvements to housing can lead to overall savings of at least £500 million each year to the NHS and social care services in the UK through a 26 per cent reduction in falls, which account for over four million hospital bed days each year in England alone.
The affordability gaps in rural areas are high compared to urban areas. The average rural house price is around £19,000 above the average for England as
whole, at £320,700 compared to £301,900, and is more than £87,000 higher than the urban average excluding London (£233,600). • Rural housing is less affordable to local people than in most urban areas. A family with one child, earning one full-time and one part-time median wage in a mainly or largely rural area would spend 31 per cent of their income on rent, compared to 26 per cent or 19 per cent in most urban local authorities. Only in
major conurbations is this higher. • Only 8 per cent of the housing stock in rural areas is affordable compared to 20 per cent in urban areas, and current delivery is failing to provide enough new homes.• Rural areas are set to see significant reductions in their working age populations over the coming decades. Between 2014 and 2038, the working age population in rural areas is projected to decline by 75,000 people while the population aged over 65 will grow by around 1.5 million. By 2038, there will be 63 people aged over 65 for every 100 working aged people, 24 more than in 2014. This is significantly higher than in urban areas where there will be just 31 people aged over 65 to every 100 working aged people. • In 2016/17, 1,071 homes were brought forward on rural exception sites. This is equivalent to 10% of all the affordable homes built in mainly and large rural authorities and more than a quarter (26 per cent) of those in settlements of less than 3,000. However more than half of these (55 per cent) were developed by just five local authorities. Of these, one authority – Cornwall – accounts for 400 homes, 37 per cent of the total homes delivered on exception sites according to government data.
1:3 disabled people in private rented properties live in unsuitable accomodation. 1:5 disabled people in social housing live in unsuitable accommodation. 1:7 disabled people in their own homes live in unsuitable accommodation.